It’s never too late…

I don’t understand why this much needed bold step of petrol price rise is drawing howls of protest from every corner of this country?  I believe that had we taken this step a while back, we would not have been in this mess today.

Although this bad situation is fully sponsored by the UPA-2, it is a much needed step to curb the over-excited depreciating currency, which is swallowing industry’s growth prospects like a hungry shark.

We cannot ignore the fact that the burden which a common man has to face by this step would be irreparable, but in economics as they say… ‘All other things being constant’ only then the arms of economic prosperity works. The only way out is to keep trying different permutations and combinations of the available economic tools.

Let’s accept the fact that we are suffering because we made a choice, a choice of electing and believing the current government and nothing here is by chance.

The easiest question a common man like you, me or anyone can ask is… Why always petrol? Why not cigarette, diamonds, alcohol or any other tool altogether? That is because of the simple reason that India imports a major chunk of its oil requirements. On top of that we are obsessed with gold like anything. Clubbing together both these commodities constitute 42% of the total imports. These imports have to be paid for in Dollars which is actually creating a double whammy for India, in the sense that on the one hand, the fiscal and trade deficits are widening sharply and on the other the Indian Inc. is posting losses after losses.

I see four potential benefits arising out of this move.

1.) It will significantly reduce the mounting losses of oil PSU’s which will subsequently become the sources of profits for government. So the governments need not to borrow or print, which makes more money available for common man and companies at cheaper interest rates.

2.) Government does not need to set aside money for subsidies which it normally does, to compensate oil companies for their losses.

3.) It’s another positive  outcome would be a long due correction in Indian currency which will be very helpful to the corporate India.

4.) Last but not the least, I feel this steep rise in prices will prompt us to use petrol in a more judicious manner, which in turn later on could lead to a fall in the prices automatically, due to the fall in demand.

In the end, I contradict my above view by saying that…What is the guarantee that the revenues earned through above measures will not go to a politician’s bank account?

But Sadly Nothing in this life comes with a guarantee!

Contributed by Vijil Jain ( Class of 2013, IBS Hyderabad)

Rupee weakening: A blessing in Disguise???

The newspapers & News channels ain’t just Greek and Latin… The Greece story was inevitable, so instead of cribbing over the crisis. Let’s look at how this crisis is not all that bad, at least for India.

Let us understand why this mess. Greece exits the euro, the euro currency weakens leads to dollar getting stronger, and as the dollar gets stronger the rupee weakens even further. So for us the electronic gadgets cost more. But let’s look at it through our country’s perspective.

  1. The Crude Oil is traded in dollars, the OPEC nations earn more dollars for the oil that they export. More dollars for the OPEC nations eventually brings down the crude oil production cost (Extracting cost). This might help in crude oil prices coming down* a bit (As OPEC’s aim is to regulate oil prices and keep a watch so that people do not shift to cleaner energy sources due to the rise in oil prices).  India imports crude oil so this would ease the inflation a bit.
  2. Unlike most of us who feel that India just imports crude oil to consume it completely, we are in for a shock (India ranks 22 in exporting of refined petroleum products). So this means weaker rupee gets
  3.  us more dollars.
  4. Eventually weak rupee is good for the exports of the country; IT companies will earn more dollars (if they haven’t hedged their risk against the volatility).
  5. Usually when the rupee weakens the foreign funds flow in as foreign investors buy more stocks.
  6. The NRI’s will want to send back their savings as Indian banks give close to 9% return on their Investments, whereas in other countries it’s too less. And a
    lso since the rupee is weakening RBI’s plans to cut the rates further in the next month’s review is out of question.
  7. Now when the rupee is weak, your products in the international market are cheaper so people will prefer Indian products over the others. This means more exports.

All of this leads to more of foreign funds flowing into the country. Currently with a growth rate of 6.9%,

India might just take advantage of the mess outside.

Contributed by M.S. Vamsi ( Class of 2013, IBS Mumbai)